Summary
NEIMETH is trading around NGN 7.75 (internal currentPrice) but public delayed feeds show intraday prints in the NGN 8.0–10.5 range recently; price momentum has been weak with heavy selling over the past 20 trading days. Source.
Operationally the company returned to profitability on the latest reported period (net profit positive) while revenue showed a strong jump year-on-year; management is pursuing a rights issue / capital raise to fund capacity expansion and reduce financing costs, which is an important near-term dilution and execution item to watch. Source Source.
Valuation and technical setup point to downside risk from here: our internal base-case fair value is NGN 6.96 (implying ~-10% from currentPrice) and the stock sits below its 20/50-day moving averages with low turnover — the market is pricing in execution and balance-sheet risk ahead of the rights issue and upcoming earnings windows. Source.
Business quality
Neimeth is a domestic pharmaceutical manufacturer with a track record of operating profitability on the latest reported year; return on equity is strong which suggests efficient use of equity when earnings are delivered.
Quality is acceptable but not exceptional — the company faces typical sector challenges (pricing pressure, distribution competition) and execution risk tied to capital investments.
Latest reported net profit is positive — operating cash flow and free cash flow are reported positive in recent disclosures. Source.
ROE is high (internal: 43.7%), indicating good earned returns when profits hold.
Business remains dependent on local market demand and distribution partners; no major new product catalyst is captured in public feeds.
Revenue and profit trend
Revenue expanded materially year-on-year (internal revenue growth ~64%), but net profit swung and reported a large percent change versus the prior year — the pattern implies margin recovery is fragile and sensitive to costs or one-off items.
Investors should focus on the upcoming earnings release and management commentary for clarity on margin drivers and whether revenue growth is sustainable.
Internal evidence: revenue growth ~64% while net profit growth is negative in percent terms versus the prior period — suggests either prior-year base effects or margin volatility.
Earnings calendar entries are flagged in public feeds — an official earnings release will be the first clean read on whether recovery is durable. Source.
Debt and margins
Debt increased meaningfully in the latest reported period (internal debt change +78%), which raises refinancing and interest-cost risk ahead of the planned capital raise.
Margins have improved enough to deliver profitability, but leverage reduces the margin of safety and makes the company sensitive to financing costs and working-capital swings.
Internal data shows debt rose materially year-on-year; management has signalled a rights issue to strengthen the balance sheet and fund capacity upgrades. Source.
Higher leverage combined with a relatively high P/E (internal: ~36.9x) suggests valuation leaves limited room for profit disappointments.
Macro sensitivity
Neimeth’s domestic manufacturing and sales make it sensitive to local demand, FX (for imported inputs), and the cost of dollar-linked raw materials — weaker macro or a stronger Naira pass-through can swing margins.
Monetary conditions and interest rates matter because of the company’s elevated debt and its ongoing funding plans.
Raw-material imports and FX policy are direct channels to margins — any Naira weakness raises input costs and pressure on margins.
Rising interest rates or tighter credit increases refinancing costs for elevated debt, making the rights issue execution more important for near-term stability.
Financial health charts
Chart
Financial health charts
Valuation summary
NEIMETH is trading around NGN 7.75. My base-case valuation frame points to roughly NGN 6.96 from the current business quality, earnings profile, risk, and setup signals. That should be read as a scenario-based analyst price view, not a guaranteed forecast.
Current price
NGN 7.75
Fair value
NGN 6.96
Upside
-10.19%
Technical setup
Trend
Mixed
Support
NGN 5.75
Resistance
NGN 6.96
RSI
42
NEIMETH has a heavy downside risk over 30 days and heavy downside risk over one year.
Peer table
ABBV
AbbVie Inc. is tracked as a US listed company in Whisone.
Economic Impact
Local pharmaceutical manufacturing supports import substitution and reduces foreign-exchange outflows when production scales up.
A successful capital raise and capacity upgrade could increase domestic supply, potentially easing price pressure in listed peers over a multi-year horizon.
If the rights issue is dilutive and signalling weak internal cash generation, market confidence in small-cap industrials could be dented, reducing liquidity in related healthcare names.
What to do
Enter only after capital raise completion and evidence of margin stability; use a staged entry and set a stop near NGN 5.75 (technical support).
Target buy zone between NGN 6.0–7.5 with stop-loss around NGN 5.75; reassess after management updates and volume recovery.
Be prepared for wide price swings; monitor rights issue terms (offer price NGN 4.00) and be ready to participate in the offer if accretive. Source.
Scenarios
Bear
NGN 6.98
Bear case assumes pressure from risk, weak sentiment, or softer execution.
Base
NGN 6.96
Base case assumes the current fundamental and valuation evidence plays out as expected.
Bull
NGN 9.14
Bull case assumes cleaner execution, stronger sentiment, and a faster rerating.
Official company and exchange updates checked
Officially, the most recent tracked development is Estimated earnings date.
- Estimated earnings date
Official company / exchange update · 2026-07-29
Discussion
Thoughtful comments improve future Whisone reports.
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