between maybaker and fidson, which is a better investment?
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Summary
May & Baker (MAYBAKER) is a mid-cap pharmaceutical/consumer-health name trading around NGN 47 with a fair-value frame near NGN 49. The company shows strong recent profit growth, high ROE (~30–35%), and an earnings-driven fundamental profile, but liquidity is light and price volatility is elevated—making entries best on cleaner pullbacks near NGN 45.4 with a stop around NGN 40.86 (Whisone internal guidance).
Fidson Healthcare is materially larger on market cap (recent public feeds show Fidson in the hundreds of billions NGN range) and has reported stronger topline scale and similar return metrics (ROE in the mid-30s) but trades at a higher multiple (P/E near the high-teens to upper-20s range in recent data) and has seen fresh share issuance/listing activity that affects free float and near-term liquidity. Sources: market-data and NGX notices. (stockanalysis.com)
For a 1–5 year horizon the choice comes down to what you prioritise: May & Baker offers a compact, high-return business that looks fairly valued today with a watchable entry and shallower upside (internal base case ~+4% to fair value), while Fidson provides larger scale, higher revenue growth in recent quarters but at a richer multiple and with corporate actions (share listing increase) that change dilution/liquidity dynamics. Monitor execution, volume, and upcoming earnings for both names before committing fresh capital.
Economic Impact
Earnings-growth transmission: May & Baker’s recent profit expansion supports valuation stability — further EPS beats would translate quickly into small re-ratings given its current fair-value proximity to price.
Scale and multiple channel: Fidson’s larger revenue base and recent top-line growth support longer-run earnings momentum, but higher P/E implies that positive news must be larger to deliver similar percentage upside versus May & Baker.
Liquidity and market structure: Low trading volume in May & Baker raises execution and slippage risk; Fidson’s increased shares-on-listing (additional 600m shares) materially affects float, trading depth and short-term supply-demand dynamics. (businesspost.ng)
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Key trend
What to do
If you prefer May & Baker, wait for a pullback to recommended entry ~NGN 45.4 and keep tight sizing; for Fidson, favour waiting until post-listing supply stabilises and clear confirmation of EPS accretion appears. (Use stop-loss discipline.)
Allocate incrementally: start a partial position in May & Baker near NGN 45–47 and add if price confirms; for Fidson, initiate on confirmed volume absorption after the additional shares trade (watch liquidity and P/E). Monitor quarterly results closely.
Take larger position in the name with the clearer catalyst: May & Baker offers nearer-term re-rating potential on earnings; Fidson offers larger upside if it sustains revenue and margin expansion — set stops near NGN 40.86 (MAYBAKER recommended) and size positions so a 10–15% adverse move is acceptable.
Scenarios
Bear
NGN 42.30
Bear case assumes pressure from risk, weak sentiment, or softer execution.
Base
NGN 49.04
Base case assumes the current fundamental and valuation evidence plays out as expected.
Bull
NGN 55.46
Bull case assumes cleaner execution, stronger sentiment, and a faster rerating.
Discussion
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